According to @KobeissiLetter, since 1975 there have been only six instances where the S&P 500 rose 30% or more over five months, and 2025 is one of them. Source: @KobeissiLetter; Carson Research via @KobeissiLetter. In those prior cases, the S&P 500 finished higher at both six and twelve months, with an average 12‑month gain of 18.1%. Source: Carson Research via @KobeissiLetter. The post adds that the Federal Reserve is about to begin cutting rates as the AI cycle accelerates, framing a pro‑risk backdrop. Source: @KobeissiLetter. For traders, this macro setup is being monitored as a potential tailwind for liquidity and risk appetite across equities and crypto markets. Source: @KobeissiLetter.

According to @KobeissiLetter, in each of the last 20 instances when the Fed cut rates with the S&P 500 at record highs, the index finished higher 12 months later, source: @KobeissiLetter on X citing Carson Research. The average 12-month S&P 500 return across those cases was 13.9 percent, source: Carson Research via @KobeissiLetter. However, in 11 of the last 22 similar episodes, stocks were lower one month after the cut, highlighting typical near-term volatility, source: @KobeissiLetter on X citing Carson Research. The author states that near-term volatility tends to create long-term buying opportunities, which traders can use to plan staggered entries and manage risk, source: @KobeissiLetter on X. For crypto participants, this equity pattern in a key risk proxy can inform BTC and ETH positioning around a rate-cut window, especially if a one-month dip precedes a 12-month drift higher, source: @KobeissiLetter on X citing Carson Research.